Combined systems dynamics model and policy brief of cascades across events, sectors, and supply chain disruptions

Lijo John*, Aino Ruggiero, Wojciech Piotrowicz

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Book/ReportCommissioned report


The impact of COVID-19 on the lives of people and businesses across the globe
was devastating. While governments across the world had undertaken a slew of
measures to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus within their geography,
many of these measures had long unintended consequences. In many instances,
people could not access necessities including food and healthcare systems. The
restrictions imposed by the governments on the movement of people and goods
across the world brought supply chains to a grinding halt and had cascading
effects of supply chain disruptions across geographies. This study identifies
cascading effects of supply chain disruptions on critical sectors, such as food,
water, energy, and healthcare systems. Since these systems are closely
integrated, and the impact of COVID-19 needs to be analysed at a much broader
level, this study uses systems thinking approach to study the effect of supply
chain disruptions on critical services. The study also develops a causal loop model
to gain further insight into how supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19
affected the coping capabilities of society and how critical services were affected.
Further, the study also puts forth certain policy recommendations for both
businesses and governments to prepare and protect against a similar situation
in the future. This study is undertaken as a part of Work Package 4, task 4.3 under
the CORE project funded by the European Union under grant agreement no.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherCORE Consortium Partners
Number of pages102
Publication statusPublished - 2023
MoE publication typeD4 Published development or research report or study


  • 512 Business and Management
  • Supply chain disruption
  • Causal loops
  • Security of supply
  • Preparedness

Areas of Strength and Areas of High Potential (AoS and AoHP)

  • AoHP: Humanitarian and societal logistics

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