Do markup dynamics reflect fundamentals or changes in conduct?

Mikael Juselius, Moshe Kim, Staffan Ringbom

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Intertemporal shifts in conduct, such as a transition from competitive to anti-competitive behavior, induce shifts in the firms’ equilibrium price configurations. Such shifts generate non-stationary price dynamics in addition to those which originate from exogenous fundamentals. We exploit this statistical feature to detect potential changes in conduct, as well as measure their effect on prices. Our approach requires only data on prices and fundamentals without necessitating strong assumptions regarding industry structure. Application to United States and European banking sectors indicates substantial differences between conventional credit spreads and components associated with changes in conduct.
Original languageEnglish
Peer-reviewed scientific journalEmpirical Economics
Number of pages29
ISSN0377-7332
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 05.06.2014
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article - refereed

Keywords

  • 511 Economics
  • KOTA2014

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