Emerging and Disruptive Technologies and Security: Considering Trade-Offs Between New Opportunities and Emerging Risks

Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDT), such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Blockchain, Quantum computing, biotechnology, nanotechnology and a broad selections of aerospace technologies, have attracted increasing attention in security and defence in recent years. What lies behind this drive towards harnessing such innovations is the hope that EDTs would solve many of today's most wicked security problems and provide an edge over potential adversaries in conflict. As such, it is often expected that EDTs could revolutionise fields of warfare, or even the concept or warfare as we know it, provide new and novel solutions to countering threats to critical infrastructures and improve cyber security of vital services. The other side of the coin, however, is the deeply felt fear of being overcome by adversaries in possession of superior technological capabilities. Consequently, Russia’s development of supersonic technologies and China’s drive towards dominating AI and drone technologies are of increasing concern. As such the emergence of EDTs are sometimes seen as threats on their own merit. However, and perhaps more importantly, disruptive innovation is often somewhat elusive in terms of what one can expect in practice. There are no guarantees towards what will emerge, if anything. Sometimes the end result is a definite dud and the investment does not return positive results. For every successful disruptive technology there are thousands that fail totally. Even when they work out, the outcome might not be the one broadly expected. This chapter thus seeks to explore how we can recognise EDTs with potential for security and defence, assess that potential with improved certainty, assess and mitigate the uncertainty associated with such technologies and investigate pathways toward a trade-offs strategy in order to achieve a balance between the risks and opportunities.