Abstract
We introduce a collective experimentation problem where a continuum of agents
choose the timing of irreversible actions under uncertainty and where public feedback from the actions arrives gradually over time. The leading application is the adoption of new technologies. The socially optimal expansion path entails an informational trade-off where acting today speeds up learning but postponing capitalizes on the option value of waiting. We contrast the social optimum to the decentralized equilibrium where agents ignore the social value of information they
generate. We show that the equilibrium can be obtained by assuming that agents
ignore the future actions of other agents, which lets us recast the complicated two-dimensional problem as a series of one-dimensional problems
choose the timing of irreversible actions under uncertainty and where public feedback from the actions arrives gradually over time. The leading application is the adoption of new technologies. The socially optimal expansion path entails an informational trade-off where acting today speeds up learning but postponing capitalizes on the option value of waiting. We contrast the social optimum to the decentralized equilibrium where agents ignore the social value of information they
generate. We show that the equilibrium can be obtained by assuming that agents
ignore the future actions of other agents, which lets us recast the complicated two-dimensional problem as a series of one-dimensional problems
Original language | English |
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Peer-reviewed scientific journal | Theoretical Economics |
Volume | 20 |
Issue number | 1 |
ISSN | 1933-6837 |
Publication status | Published - 01.2025 |
MoE publication type | A1 Journal article - refereed |
Keywords
- 511 Economics
- Social learning, experimentation, optimal stopping, technology adoption