Sup-tests against time-varying GARCH models

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionScientific

Abstract

Testing GARCH models against time-varying GARCH models involves nuisance parameters which are not identified under the null hypothesis. Asymptotic distribution theory is used for additive nonlinear regression models to derive misspecification tests against a new GARCH model with a deterministic time-varying intercept. First, we linearise the GARCH model by an ARMA representation. Second, we use testing theory for regression models with additive nonlinearity to derive test statistics. The asymptotic distributions of test statistics can be expressed as functionals of chi-squared processes. The supremum (sup) and average (ave) functionals are used to derive test statistics. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are approximated by simulation. In a Monte Carlo study, we find that the proposed sup and ave tests have good size and power properties. The results show that the tests tend to be slightly conservative but have higher power than tests based on auxiliary regressions. The power loss implied by the Taylor expansion in auxiliary regression-based tests is substantial against a time-varying GARCH model with an intercept
that is a smooth function of time.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationBook of Abstracts COMPSTAT 2023
Number of pages1
Volume25
Place of PublicationLondon
Publication date22.08.2023
Pages23
ISBN (Print)9789073592414
ISBN (Electronic)9789073592414
Publication statusPublished - 22.08.2023
MoE publication typeB3 Article in conference proceedings

Keywords

  • 112 Statistics and probability

Areas of Strength and Areas of High Potential (AoS and AoHP)

  • AoS: Financial management, accounting, and governance

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