Coins for Bombs: The Predictive Ability of On‐Chain Transfers for Terrorist Attacks

Dan Amiram, Bjorn Jorgensen, Daniel Rabetti*

*Motsvarande författare för detta arbete

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikelVetenskapligPeer review

1 Citeringar (Scopus)

Sammanfattning

This study examines whether we can learn from the behavior of blockchain-based transfers to predict the financing of terrorist attacks. We exploit blockchain transaction transparency to map millions of transfers for hundreds of large on-chain service providers. The mapped dataset permits us to empirically conduct several analyses. First, we analyze abnormal transfer volume in the vicinity of large-scale highly visible terrorist attacks. We document evidence consistent with heightened activity in coin wallets belonging to unregulated exchanges and mixer services – central to laundering funds between terrorist groups and operatives on the ground. Next, we use forensic accounting techniques to follow the trails of funds associated with the Sri Lanka Easter bombing. Insights from this event corroborate our findings and aid in our construction of a blockchain-based predictive model. Finally, using machine-learning algorithms, we demonstrate that fund trails have predictive power in out-of-the sample analysis. Our study is informative to researchers, regulators, and market players, in providing methods for detecting the flow of terrorist funds on blockchain-based systems using accounting knowledge and techniques.
OriginalspråkEngelska
Referentgranskad vetenskaplig tidskriftJournal of Accounting Research
Volym60
Nummer2
Sidor (från-till)427-466
Antal sidor40
ISSN0021-8456
DOI
StatusPublicerad - 23.03.2022
MoE-publikationstypA1 Originalartikel i en vetenskaplig tidskrift

Nyckelord

  • 512 Företagsekonomi

Styrkeområden och områden med hög potential (AoS och AoHP)

  • AoS: Finansiering, redovisning och företagsstyrning

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