Forecasting Errors of New Venture Survival

Ari Hyytinen*, Jukka Lahtonen, Mika Pajarinen

*Motsvarande författare för detta arbete

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikelVetenskapligPeer review

12 Citeringar (Scopus)

Sammanfattning

This article studies entrepreneurs' forecast errors around market entry. Using data on nascent entrepreneurs in the U.S. and start-ups in Finland, we find that besides being overoptimistic on average in both countries, entrepreneurs' survival expectations can barely distinguish survival from exits. Moreover, about one fourth of the entrepreneurs do not provide an estimate for the survival of a typical venture. However, among those that do provide it, the estimates are less overoptimistic. We also compare the forecast accuracy of entrepreneurs to those of macroeconomic forecasters. Our findings provide guidance for the development of positive theories of entrepreneurial belief formation and overoptimism.

OriginalspråkEngelska
Referentgranskad vetenskaplig tidskriftStrategic Entrepreneurship Journal
Volym8
Utgåva4
Sidor (från-till)283-302
Antal sidor20
ISSN1932-4391
DOI
StatusPublicerad - 08.12.2014
MoE-publikationstypA1 Originalartikel i en vetenskaplig tidskrift

Nyckelord

  • 511 Nationalekonomi

Fingeravtryck

Fördjupa i forskningsämnen för ”Forecasting Errors of New Venture Survival”. Tillsammans bildar de ett unikt fingeravtryck.

Citera det här