@article{549c2017650448d18285f0f1286e1dd2,
title = "Inflation and demography through time",
abstract = "Demography accounts for a large share of low frequency inflation variation in 22 countries from 1870 to 2016. The dependent population (young and old) is associated with higher, and the working age population with lower inflation. The relationship is robust across different sub-samples and specifications, including dynamic Phillips curve settings, suggesting that it is not spurious. The observed pattern is broadly consistent with delayed monetary policy responses to demography-induced changes in the natural interest rate.",
keywords = "511 Economics, Demography, Inflation, Phillips curve",
author = "Mikael Juselius and El{\H o}d Tak{\'a}ts",
note = "Funding Information: The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank for International Settlements or the Bank of Finland. We are grateful for comments from Claudio Borio, Mathias Drehmann, Ray Fair, Charles Goodhart, Adam Gulan, Anton Korinek, Marco Lombardi, Kiyohiko Nishimura, Hyun Song Shin, Christian Upper, Egon Zakrajsek, and from seminar participants at the Austrian National Bank, Bank for International Settlements, Basel University, Central Bank of Hungary, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, European Central Bank, from participants at the “Cointegration: Theory and Applications” conference at the University of Copenhagen, the LACEA (Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association) Meeting at Santa Cruz (Bolivia), the CEPR-Bank of Finland conference on “Demographics and the Macroeconomy” and two anonymous referees. We are also indebted to roundtable discussants at the Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Policy Committee, and Prudential Regulation Authority of the Bank of England chaired by Governor Carney. We thank Emese Kuruc for excellent research assistance. All remaining errors are our own. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021",
year = "2021",
month = jul,
doi = "10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104136",
language = "English",
volume = "128",
journal = "Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control",
issn = "0165-1889",
publisher = "Elsevier BV",
}