Which Discoveries Are Paradigm Shifting?

To more closely align theories of paradigm-shifting discoveries and their empirical quantification, we propose a novel measure that incorporates a discovery’s impact, novelty, and tendency to break with the past into a single, coherent measure. Calibration using the National Inventor Hall of Fame data reveals that the three dimensions are strict complements, meaning, for example, that greater impact cannot substitute for moderate novelty. We illustrate how the measure works and validate it in several complementary ways using data on the United States Patent and Trademark Office patents from 1982 to 2015. High values of the measure are strongly predictive of discoveries that are simultaneously exceptional in terms of their impact, novelty, and disruptiveness.